Tuesday, December 1, 2015

Ethiopia: Government, private sector steps up mining activity




Country has vast untapped resources of gold, potash, zinc and tantalum, experts say


Ethiopia: Government, private sector steps up mining activity





by Addis Getachew
ADDIS ABABA
The Ethiopian government, along with private sector partners, is taking steps to tap the country's vast underground resources.
“Ethiopia has considerable reserves of gold, potash, zinc, gemstones and tantalum,” geological survey consultant Yalew Bekele told Anadolu Agency on Friday. “But they remain unstudied, unexplored and undeveloped.”
Ethiopian Minister of Mines, Petroleum and Natural Gas Tolossa Shagi told Anadolu Agency on Friday that the government is stepping up efforts to support the mining industry.
“There is hope that Ethiopia will become a country in the short term whose extractive industry will contribute significantly to GDP,” the minister said in an interview.
The minister pointed out that revenue from mining had not met its goal, as defined by the government’s economic plan for 2014. Ethiopia had planned to secure mining revenue of $646 million during 2014/15 but only earned about half of that, $363 million, according to government statistics.
“Within a period of two years, Ethiopia will start natural gas production from its Kalub and Lala areas in the Somali regional state where 7.4 trillion cubic feet of natural gas is being developed for domestic use and for export via Djibouti,” the minister said. The government is financing the project, in a public-private partnership with the Chinese mining firm GCL; GCL will also build the pipeline to Djibouti.
“Indications of much larger deposits of natural gas have been found along the Great Rift Valley stretching as far south as Uganda, and exploration is underway in this area,” Shagi said.
Russian company GBP Global Resources, which was granted the concession in 2014, is currently exploring natural gas and oil reserves along the Ethiopian Rift valley area. Revenue will be shared between the company and the government if reserves are found.
“Currently eight exploration companies including from China and Russia are engaging in exploration and development of natural gas throughout the country,” he said.
The Midroc Group, a company owned by the Saudi businessman Al-Amoudi, is developing gold in Southern Ethiopia. The miner Alana Potash, acquired by Israel Chemicals in March 2015, is working on the massive deposits of potash in northeastern Ethiopia, Bekele said.
Ethiopia is developing its gem stone industry. According to the minister, small-scale traditional miners and middle men are earning about $25 million annually from gem stones that are to be found in abundance in many areas in the country.
“This can be increased tenfold if we transfer gem stone extraction to the mainstream mining sector,” Shagi said. “That is why we have recently put in place a Gemology Institute.”
According to Bekele, only 350,000 square kilometers (135,135 square miles) in total have been studied using seismic techniques for reserves. Ethiopia covers a total of 1,100,000 square kilometres (420,000 sq mi).
“Exploration should be intensified covering an expanded study area,” Bekele said; satellite images and surveys on the ground show Ethiopia holding immense resources under the surface. 

Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Ethiopian entrepreneurs struggle as command economy soars | Business Recorder

Ethiopian entrepreneurs struggle as command economy soars | Business Recorder: "In Ethiopia, where state spending rather than private enterprise has been the driving force behind double-digit economic growth, tech entrepreneurs like Araya Lakew feel stuck in the slow lane. Five years ago, the 34-year-old spotted a niche for a website matching buyers and sellers of second-hand cars in a nation where prices often rise even as vehicles age because of high tariffs on imports.

His website, Mekina.net, receives 316,000 hits a month and adds 20 cars a day to its sales list but he has struggled to expand beyond the capital because of poor Internet penetration and a ropey mobile network run by state monopoly Ethio Telecom. "We are only touching a tiny surface of the market," Araya told Reuters. "We try to optimise what we have as there are a lot of obstacles to growth."

In a nation where the authorities have little tolerance of criticism, Ethiopian entrepreneurs are reluctant to blame the government or its agencies for the challenges they face. But economists say the state's tight grip and a list of restrictions on where private business and foreigners can invest risk stifling tech and other start-ups that will be vital for creating jobs and driving innovation.

"The way things stand, this sector may not survive," said Markos Lemma, co-founder of iceaddis, a technology hub in Addis Ababa that supports entrepreneurs. "Ethiopia is leaving out a huge talent-based opportunity." Telecoms services are in the hands of the state, while foreigners are barred from retail and banking. Entrepreneurs struggle for funds as banks have to invest the equivalent of 27 percent of their loan portfolio in low-yielding state development bonds, leaving less for private lending.

Araya said private equity firms had shown interest in his plans. "But they are put off by the regulations," he said. Ethiopians only need look south to Kenya to see what a more free-wheeling approach could deliver in a nation where telecoms firms and Internet providers are in private hands. Two thirds of Kenya's 45 million people had Internet access as of March 2015, while in Ethiopia, a nation of more than 95 million, it was just 2.9 percent at the end of 2014, figures compiled by private firm Internet World Stats showed.

In terms of innovation, Kenya's biggest operator, Safaricom , partly owned by Britain's Vodafone, pioneered a system in 2007 that allows Kenyans to pay bills or receive funds on the simplest of mobile phones. M-Pesa swept across Kenya, where few people have formal bank accounts, and has been mimicked across Africa. But in Ethiopia, similar 'mobile money' systems are less than two years old and cash is still king.

"That is a major issue for us," said Feleg Tsegaye, founder of Deliver Addis, Ethiopia's first online food delivery service, adding that mobile payments would make his service more efficient. "We are currently not at that level yet." Mobile users complain that even basic telephone coverage is poor and Internet speeds are sluggish even in the capital, although Ethio Telecom is rolling out faster services. But the government shows no sign of easing its grip, citing economic growth that is on track to exceed 10 percent this year, one of the fastest in Africa. It says profits from Ethio Telecom are ploughed back into a range of infrastructure projects, such as railways. The firm generated revenues of 21.5 billion birr ($1.03 billion) in fiscal 2014/15 and gross profit of 14.5 billion birr. "



'via Blog this'

Sunday, October 18, 2015

Djibouti and Ethiopia sign $1.55 Bn to construct fuel pipeline | Africa Times







Awashrivermap

Djibouti and Ethiopia have signed $1.55 billion deal for the construction of a fuel pipeline between the two countries. The deal was made between the two countries as well as the developers Mining, Oil & Gas Services and Blackstone Group LP-backed Black Rhino Group.
The agreement states that the pipeline will be 550 kilometres which will be used to transport diesel, gasoline and jet fuel from Damerjog port in Djibouti to Awash terminal in central Ethiopia. The completion of the pipeline is scheduled for 2018. The project also includes an import facility with the storage capacity of 950,000 barrels in the Djibouti port, which will be linked, to the 20-inch diameter pipe leading the depot in Ethiopia. The pipe will be capable of handling 240,000 barrels of fuel a day, according to The East African.
“The pipeline will increase energy security, aid economic development and reduce harmful emissions,” Brian Herlihy said, the Chief Executive Officer of Black Rhino.
Currently, fuel products are transported via 800 kilometres of roads from Djibouti port to the Ethiopian depot travelling through mountainous areas, reported The East African. The construction of the pipeline is expected to make the transport of the products for efficient for the two countries.
“The Horn of Africa project will sustain the momentum of economic growth and growing fuel demand in both Djibouti and Ethiopia by enabling high-quality, consistent energy supply at reasonable cost points,” Mining Oil and Gas Services Chief Executive Officer Errol Gregor said.
Growth in Ethiopia has surpassed all other Sub-Saharan countries in the past decade and the government is boosting its spending in order to increase infrastructure, according to the Mail and Guardian Africa. Not only has Ethiopia invested in its own future, but the two countries are working together to invest in joint infrastructure in order to make the area the logistics hub for the continent. Before that however, it seems that the plan will provide a gateway for resources in Eastern and Central Africa.
The Djibouti-Ethiopia agreement appears to be casting a shadow over the much-hyped Kenyan Lamu Port Southern Sudan-Ethiopia Transport Corridor (LAPSSET).

Friday, October 16, 2015

Made in... Ethiopia? Yes, Ethiopia | Jennifer Schwab

ADDIS ABABA -- So we got used to "Made in Japan," "Made in China," "Made in Hong Kong" and most recently "Made in Vietnam."  There's going to be a new kid in town, but he's not Asian.  Prepare yourselves for "Made in Ethiopia."
Much has been written about the "BRIC" countries -- Brazil, Russia, India and China - saying these giants would lead the new world economy.  And certainly to some extent, they are.  However, the next wave may well be the "EMIC" countries - Ethiopia, Myanmar, Iran and Colombia. I wrote about the prospect of EMIC coming on strong last summer.



With this in mind, I ventured to Ethiopia to investigate further the economic and sustainability potential of this large and populous nation.  Ethiopia is best known for its deceased long-term ruler, Haile Selassie, who was credited with embracing multilateralism and Collective Security which led to Ethiopia becoming a charter member of the U.N.  While he passed in 1975, he is still a national hero and is widely hailed as the face of the first free nation in Africa. In the early 70s, with the cold war and socialist/Marxist views spreading across the globe, the disenfranchised sector of the Ethiopian population namely the farmer, with the support of the young university students started revolting. Soon, a handful of army leaders joined in the anti-monarchy movement which quickly led to the demise of the Haile Selassie regime, replaced by the Derg Regime, which some call, one of the most violent regimes in Ethiopian history. The Derg ruled the country from 1973 to 1992 until it was ousted by the EPRDF (Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front) which still leads the country following ethnic federalism ideology and a market led economy. The country of 90 million is now truly independent, and while still technically an LDC, or less developed country, the EPRDF is on a mission to bring long term, sustainable economic growth and expansion.  I found that while it is not open season for "carpetbaggers," anyone with a great business idea that can help elevate Ethiopia's economy will have a legitimate shot at admission.
2015-10-13-1444770425-7101788-addisababalandscape.jpg
View of Addis Ababa skyline
I started my due diligence on how things have changed with a member of the Ethiopian diaspora, San Diego-based entrepreneur, Feben Yohannes. Upon reentering Addis Ababa after 15 years of absence, she commented, "My people have much to be proud of, the development that has occurred over the past 15 years is by Ethiopians, for Ethiopians.  And knowing that Rome wasn't built in a day, the city will continue to improve." She was visibly awestruck by the airport expansion, extensive roads, bridges and freeways constructed or currently under way.  
2015-10-13-1444771841-8999891-FebenwithmotherDestahagos.JPG
Feben Yohannes, San Diego-based entrepreneur, with her mother Desta Hagos, an artist living is Addis Ababa
She also noted, "kids on the street looked clean, well-fed and well-dressed compared to 15 years ago. The heart of the city is beating with an air of opportunity. Addis used to be the playground for the few, now it is a thriving cosmopolitan city for the masses, this makes me very happy." 
Next I looked for boots on the ground, folks ingrained in the community. "Ethiopia is serious about forming a green economy," says Omar Bagersh, scion of a family that has conducted business in Ethiopia for three generations.  "The government wants to do manufacturing the right way, with an eye toward sustainable processes and truly green materials with little byproduct or waste. We want to safeguard our trees and foliage, and new development will only be allowed after careful environmental scrutiny. At the same time, we are attempting to create a self-sufficient economy and feeding our people is of primary importance.  Thus while we are very conscious of GMOs, we have to feed many people and the need is urgent so while organic farming is preferred, other options may be considered."  Thus there exists a natural tension between sweeping development vs. sustainable development that will be good for the environment as well as the population in the long term.



Bagersh was educated in the U.S.  He and his family are primarily engaged in running coffee plantations, among other businesses.  I visited him in his spacious Addis Ababa home, decorated with gorgeous African artwork and looked after by a generous fulltime staff.  "We are entering the next phase of our Growth and Transformation Plan (aka GTP2)," Bagersh explains.  "This reflects the government's desire to build and strengthen the private sector leading to more jobs.  Foreign investment is encouraged, and this will be supported by additional public sector spending. Addis Ababa suffers from pollution; the government is aware of this and wants to eradicate this problem." I did get the feeling that the regime will not allow environmental abuses such as strip mining, and that it will definitely not be open season for anyone with a checkbook. Indeed, the government's vetting process for new businesses from abroad is time consuming, detailed and slow-moving, which can be frustrating to many investors. Thus patience is a virtue in this regard.
2015-10-13-1444769994-7553467-BishangariLodge.jpg
Bishangari Lodge, an eco lodge owned by Omar Bagersh
That said, the Chinese have a huge head start on the West in terms of investment and this is visibly apparent.  China is building roads, schools, hospitals and other infrastructure in a highly noticeable way throughout the Addis Ababa metro area.  One can assume that in return, they have negotiated a mutually beneficial relationship in industry, agriculture, as well as real estate projects. "We are open to Western investment but many deals are just now in the feasibility stage. Meanwhile, Chinese investments are making sizable investments that are directly impacting the lives of our citizens," Bagersh said. 
2015-10-13-1444770201-2093291-2015100214438230475227108Ethiopiabillboardthumb.jpg
A Chinese industrial zone on the outskirts of Addis Ababa. The Ethiopian flag neighboring the Chinese flag is emblematic of the growing synergy between the business communities in both nations.
A few moguls of Ethiopian business do exist, among them is Mulugeta (aka known as Mole by close friends), who has interests in real estate development, night clubs, mining, logistics and stone quarries. Although diminutive in stature, Mulugeta cuts a striking figure nonetheless with his lengthy white beard and Gucci wardrobe.  His office is sleek and filled with large format oil paintings by many of Africa's most noted artists; his collection of African art is said to be among the best on the continent.  He was educated in the U.S. and has been in Ethiopia for 18 years.  Among his varied interests is a local winery, with his partner, rock musician and entrepreneur Bob Geldof.  He employs over 2,000 people combined, and is married with five children.  "We have very little crime here," Mulugeta states definitively.  "Electricity is very cheap.  Our government is stable.  Our people want to work...we want to feed ourselves.  Our education system is beginning to produce results.  The government is providing healthcare and trying to teach the principles of birth control.  If not for this, our population would be over 120 million already.  So we are making progress.  We need infrastructure and we want foreign investment."

2015-10-13-1444770271-2556517-2015100214438231301451229Ethiopia22Mole22Mullerthumb.jpg
Mulugeta, business tycoon, in his element at his office surrounded by African emerging art
I also wanted to speak with an expatriate living in Ethiopia.  Who better than a fair skinned, blonde German named Frank Michel.  50ish Frank runs a mid-sized IT business in Addis.  He is married to an Ethiopian woman and has lived between Addis Ababa and Munich for 23 years.  "Ethiopia has averaged 9 percent GNP growth over the last decade, which is among the highest in the world.  This should hopefully lead to what we need most here, which is the emergence of a legitimate middle class.   The government here would love to elevate a significant percentage of its population to this level," Michel said. 
2015-10-13-1444770537-2034772-MessieFrank.jpg
Frank Michel with his Ethiopian wife, Messie
Of the 90 million Ethiopians, about six million reside in the Addis metro area.  Average income here is about $50 per month, and while the cost of living is proportional to this, over 29% are still living below any type of measurable poverty level (World Bank, 2010).  There is a broad and growing network of schools and universities, and while the Ethiopians are proud of this, the literacy and depth of knowledge of their graduates still pales in comparison to Western education, thus many high performers seemingly seek out schools abroad.  This is a key factor for foreign investors, as in, is there a capable, educated, trainable base of employees that can be hired to run and staff your Ethiopian branch?



So what is Ethiopia really like?  Meaning, could someone from a large American city make a go of it here?  The answer is, only if you are adventurous, flexible, have a stomach for exotic spices and very different foods, and can appreciate the growing pains of an economy in transformation.  Power outages are frequent, rainy season is sometimes relentless, neither motorized transportation nor the roads are anywhere near what we are accustomed to, and "luxury" accommodations are not readily available.  (I stayed at a Hilton which was a decently appointed business and expat hostelry...as is the Addis Ababa Sheraton which was costlier and a bit nicer but sorry no Aman or Four Seasons...yet). The food is different, strongly spiced, and one has to be careful with the fresh fruits and vegetables as some are not grown and washed to our cleanliness standards - I noticed that even the locals will eat them only at certain restaurants that boast organic veggies.  Meats are a central part of the diet, along with injera, an Ethiopian bread made from teff flour that serves as a tasty crepe-like shell for "tibs" (Ethiopian filet) and/or "shiro" (Ethiopian lentils). A good strong 4x4 vehicle is recommended as roads are often unpaved, filled with potholes, and generally very rough.  Public transportation is also sporadic at best.  


The people of Ethiopia seem happy and proud of their country.  They are open and friendly to Americans.  They express a willingness to work with foreign business interests if new jobs can be created.  They are artistic, with many interesting takes on indigenous painting, sculpture and crafts...the best of which command Western pricing.  They do speak English although Ethiopia has a staggering 88 languages and 200 dialects. Amharic is known as the official language of the country and is a bit similar to Arabic. A variety of different dialects are spoken throughout the many villages that dot the hinterlands.



Perhaps most importantly, I really did get the feeling that the Ethiopian government cares about its citizens and wants to feed them, wants to get them jobs, wants to educate them, wants to teach them family planning, and more.  Which is a lot different from other developing countries that exist primarily to line the pockets of their dictator-leaders and their cronies, at the expense of the actual citizens whom the aid was intended for.  While there is rumor of a large "secret police" force, and in a recent election the EPRDF received 100 percent of the vote, I have no evidence other than my impressions but it seems to me that the government has support of its citizens not by fear of the sword but by its desire to provide better lives for the citizens of Ethiopia.  What a concept!

Sunday, September 13, 2015

Ethiopia: Livestock Plan to Boost Economy and Lift Millions out of Poverty

In July 2015, Ethiopia released a summary of its forthcoming Livestock Master Plan (LMP), which is the governmental blueprint for directing the continued transformation of the country’s livestock sector. The LMP’s implementation is intended to strengthen the livestock sector, enhance Ethiopia’s nutritional and food security situation, improve resilience, and spur economic growth that will lift nearly 2.36 million households out of poverty. The LMP could spur demand for certain imported feed inputs (e.g. soy), some of which may come from the United States. 

Thursday, August 20, 2015

How Real is the Ethiopia Rising Narrative 

Dawit Ayele Haylemariam Headshot
A concerned Citizen and Graduate Student of Political Science at University of Passau

2015-08-13-1439502824-1157692-addis_Ababa_city.jpg
If you ask "Is Ethiopia rising?" the answer will most likely depend on who you are asking. If you ask a regular follower of the country's public media outlets, the answer will be an astounding yes! The same question posed to someone who gets his reports from the independent media and social media activists, will elicit a flagrantly different response, something to the effect that the country is not making any tangible progress and that it is rather engaging in huge infrastructural projects to camouflage and mask the underlying poverty.
The disagreement from these two groups often comes from misunderstanding of what economic growth represents and how it differs from development.
Economic growth is simply an increase in the amount of goods and services produced in a country over a given period of time, it is commonly measured through Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Essentially, any activity that involves the transaction of values, however of no use or even harmful to human life, will have an increasing effect on the GDP. But, Economic development refers to the sustained improvement in living conditions, citizen's self-esteem, meeting of basic needs and enabling of a free and just society.
Based on the above criteria, it is beyond argument that Ethiopia's GDP has been growing at a notable growth rate over the past decade. A recent report by IMF also ranks Ethiopia among the five fastest growing economies in the world.
The objective of this article is to understand the sources of the growth and analyze whether the growth has been (or will be) translated into sustainable improvement in the wellbeing of citizens.
Why should we question the good news of fast economic growth? you may ask. The reason for maintaining skepticism is because history is replete with examples where economic growth was not followed by similar progress in human development. Instead growth was achieved at the cost of greater inequality, higher unemployment and weakened democracy.For example. a report by Save the Children has shown In Nigeria GDP per capita has increased by 51 per cent since 2000, but extreme income poverty has risen by 8 per cent, as has income inequality.
Two major factors are the key drivers behind Ethiopia's recent growth success. When one takes a closer look at Ethiopia's growth figures it is easy to spot that the most determining factor for such high growth rates -- the very small size of the economy. In fact when the double digit growth rate started in 2004, the country's GDP was a comparatively meagre $10 billion, which was much lower than the $13.4 billion thirteen years before in 1991. Factors such as poor policy environment as the incumbents then sought to consolidate power in the post-civil war era, border conflicts with Eritrea and droughts have combined to cause a long term economic recession. Thus, the initial few years of fast GDP growth represents recovery from this long period of recession.
Secondly, Ethiopia's fast economic growth is owed to the unprecedented level of public investments in infrastructural schemes and public enterprises. According to the World Bank, Ethiopia's public investment rate is the third highest in the world, while private investment rate is the sixth lowest. So far, growth has been dominated by public investment driven by a combination of foreign aid, easy access to foreign borrowing particularly from China and non-tradable services in particular construction, transport, and hotels and retail stores.
The public investment-led development has delivered high growth rates in the past and will continue as a key driver to maintain the trend. The federal government recently approved an $11.1 billion budget for the 20015/16 fiscal year, up by nearly 25 per cent from the previous year. Similarly the Addis Ababa city administration has approved $1.6 billion budget which is also 14 per cent higher than the year before. When combined, these total of $3 billion increase amount to about 6 per cent of the country's current GDP. Aided by more investments by State Owned Enterprises, the government can almost guarantee, with or without any increase in investment or productivity from other sectors, that the high growth rate will continue.
Growth, Transformation and Sustainable Development
The government's developmental state model is said to be taken after the East Asian tiger's experience. East Asian countries grew rapidly by replicating, in a much shorter time frame, what today's advanced countries did following the Industrial Revolution. They turned their farmers into manufacturing workers, diversified their economies, and exported a range of increasingly sophisticated goods.
As impressive as Ethiopia's growth is, it has not been accompanied by transformations that can translate into sustained poverty reduction. The Ethiopian economy is still dominated by agriculture. Slight change in structure has emerged due to the growth in services, rather than the growth that was hoped for in industry, particularly manufacturing.
Agriculture accounts for 80 percent of employment and 70 percent of export earnings. Even after twelve years of fast growth, manufacturing only accounts for 4.2 percentof the GDP and in 2011 only 8 percent of the labor force is employed in the industrial sector. The country's major export items are still its famous coffee and fresh cut flowers.
To accelerate the transformation process the government targets export-led industrialization through exposition of labor intensive low skill manufacturing industries. Although encouraging work has been done in terms of attracting foreign investment, a lot more is needed to be done to bring tangible change on with regards to the structure of the economy.
The government's attempt to over sell the growth success has raised the younger population's expectations of good jobs without expanding the capacity to deliver them. A report by The World Bank shows, in 2011 only 1 in 12 households had at least one member engaged in the industrial sector.
the issue of equitable distribution of gains is no different. So far the gains from the growth seem to be concentrated in the hands of the few. A research firm based in South Africa reported, the number of US-dollar millionaires in Ethiopia rose by 108 percent between 2007 and 2013 - faster than in any other country in African.Similarly, The Ethiopian customs and revenue department recently reportedthat nearly 65 percent of Ethiopia's tax revenue came from fewer than 1,000 individuals in 2014.
On the other hand, despite a reported decline of the poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day (PPP), equivalent to $0.6, from 44 percent in 2000 to 30 percent in 2011, many continue to have incomes very close to the poverty line, leaving them vulnerable to poverty due to shocks from droughts, job losses, and illness. 72 percent of the population still lived on less than two dollars a day in 2010.
The dramatic rise in the price of major consumer products particularly in 2005/6 and 2010/11 has made the poor's life very difficult leading to struggles to keep their children in school. A report quoting The Ministry of Education has reported Grade Five to Grade Eight drop out of schools more than ever before. About 40 percent were dropping out because "they could not continue classes due to poverty-related reasons."
Another major reason to question the "Ethiopia rising" narrative is the role of democracy and good governance in the process. Despite being endorsed as a democratically elected government by Barack Obama during his recent visit to the country, the Ethiopian government has been criticized for being increasingly autocratic and designing a systems that reward party members and affiliates to the exclusion of dissidents.
These concerns are also shared by citizens. A poll published in 2008 by Gallup reveals, fewer than 3 in 10 Ethiopians express trust in the national government, and the judiciary fares as poorly, eliciting confidence from about one-quarter of respondents. But participatory politics prompt the lowest levels of trust, as only 13 percent of Ethiopians have confidence in the honesty of elections. There is no much evidence to suggest citizen's confidence and trust in their government and institutions have improved since.
In conclusion, the fast economic growth that has been witnessed in Ethiopia so far is a good reason to be hopeful. However, it is too early to call it a miracle. There is a lot of homework to be done if this growth is to be sustained and more importantly translated into development. Improving the bureaucratic environment to make doing business easier should be a top priority, so should introducing a transparent and accountable business environment to control tax evasion and corruption. The government should also provide more space for the private sector to take the lead in the industrialization process.
Finally and most importantly, building national consensus to move forward as a nation is a must. As the former mayor-elect of Addis Ababa and now a rebel leader Professor Birhanu Nega once said "if you can't get your politics right, you can't get your economy right. A country may obtain short-term goals but without inclusive, broad-based Political structure, growth isn't sustainable".

How Real is the Ethiopia Rising Narrative | Dawit Ayele Haylemariam

2015-08-13-1439502824-1157692-addis_Ababa_city.jpg
If you ask "Is Ethiopia rising?" the answer will most likely depend on who you are asking. If you ask a regular follower of the country's public media outlets, the answer will be an astounding yes! The same question posed to someone who gets his reports from the independent media and social media activists, will elicit a flagrantly different response, something to the effect that the country is not making any tangible progress and that it is rather engaging in huge infrastructural projects to camouflage and mask the underlying poverty.
The disagreement from these two groups often comes from misunderstanding of what economic growth represents and how it differs from development.
Economic growth is simply an increase in the amount of goods and services produced in a country over a given period of time, it is commonly measured through Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Essentially, any activity that involves the transaction of values, however of no use or even harmful to human life, will have an increasing effect on the GDP. But, Economic development refers to the sustained improvement in living conditions, citizen's self-esteem, meeting of basic needs and enabling of a free and just society.
Based on the above criteria, it is beyond argument that Ethiopia's GDP has been growing at a notable growth rate over the past decade. A recent report by IMF also ranks Ethiopia among the five fastest growing economies in the world.
The objective of this article is to understand the sources of the growth and analyze whether the growth has been (or will be) translated into sustainable improvement in the wellbeing of citizens.
Why should we question the good news of fast economic growth? you may ask. The reason for maintaining skepticism is because history is replete with examples where economic growth was not followed by similar progress in human development. Instead growth was achieved at the cost of greater inequality, higher unemployment and weakened democracy.For example. a report by Save the Children has shown In Nigeria GDP per capita has increased by 51 per cent since 2000, but extreme income poverty has risen by 8 per cent, as has income inequality.
Two major factors are the key drivers behind Ethiopia's recent growth success. When one takes a closer look at Ethiopia's growth figures it is easy to spot that the most determining factor for such high growth rates -- the very small size of the economy. In fact when the double digit growth rate started in 2004, the country's GDP was a comparatively meagre $10 billion, which was much lower than the $13.4 billion thirteen years before in 1991. Factors such as poor policy environment as the incumbents then sought to consolidate power in the post-civil war era, border conflicts with Eritrea and droughts have combined to cause a long term economic recession. Thus, the initial few years of fast GDP growth represents recovery from this long period of recession.
Secondly, Ethiopia's fast economic growth is owed to the unprecedented level of public investments in infrastructural schemes and public enterprises. According to the World Bank, Ethiopia's public investment rate is the third highest in the world, while private investment rate is the sixth lowest. So far, growth has been dominated by public investment driven by a combination of foreign aid, easy access to foreign borrowing particularly from China and non-tradable services in particular construction, transport, and hotels and retail stores.
The public investment-led development has delivered high growth rates in the past and will continue as a key driver to maintain the trend. The federal government recently approved an $11.1 billion budget for the 20015/16 fiscal year, up by nearly 25 per cent from the previous year. Similarly the Addis Ababa city administration has approved $1.6 billion budget which is also 14 per cent higher than the year before. When combined, these total of $3 billion increase amount to about 6 per cent of the country's current GDP. Aided by more investments by State Owned Enterprises, the government can almost guarantee, with or without any increase in investment or productivity from other sectors, that the high growth rate will continue.
Growth, Transformation and Sustainable Development
The government's developmental state model is said to be taken after the East Asian tiger's experience. East Asian countries grew rapidly by replicating, in a much shorter time frame, what today's advanced countries did following the Industrial Revolution. They turned their farmers into manufacturing workers, diversified their economies, and exported a range of increasingly sophisticated goods.
As impressive as Ethiopia's growth is, it has not been accompanied by transformations that can translate into sustained poverty reduction. The Ethiopian economy is still dominated by agriculture. Slight change in structure has emerged due to the growth in services, rather than the growth that was hoped for in industry, particularly manufacturing.
Agriculture accounts for 80 percent of employment and 70 percent of export earnings. Even after twelve years of fast growth, manufacturing only accounts for 4.2 percentof the GDP and in 2011 only 8 percent of the labor force is employed in the industrial sector. The country's major export items are still its famous coffee and fresh cut flowers.
To accelerate the transformation process the government targets export-led industrialization through exposition of labor intensive low skill manufacturing industries. Although encouraging work has been done in terms of attracting foreign investment, a lot more is needed to be done to bring tangible change on with regards to the structure of the economy.
The government's attempt to over sell the growth success has raised the younger population's expectations of good jobs without expanding the capacity to deliver them. A report by The World Bank shows, in 2011 only 1 in 12 households had at least one member engaged in the industrial sector.
the issue of equitable distribution of gains is no different. So far the gains from the growth seem to be concentrated in the hands of the few. A research firm based in South Africa reported, the number of US-dollar millionaires in Ethiopia rose by 108 percent between 2007 and 2013 - faster than in any other country in African.Similarly, The Ethiopian customs and revenue department recently reportedthat nearly 65 percent of Ethiopia's tax revenue came from fewer than 1,000 individuals in 2014.
On the other hand, despite a reported decline of the poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day (PPP), equivalent to $0.6, from 44 percent in 2000 to 30 percent in 2011, many continue to have incomes very close to the poverty line, leaving them vulnerable to poverty due to shocks from droughts, job losses, and illness. 72 percent of the population still lived on less than two dollars a day in 2010.
The dramatic rise in the price of major consumer products particularly in 2005/6 and 2010/11 has made the poor's life very difficult leading to struggles to keep their children in school. A report quoting The Ministry of Education has reported Grade Five to Grade Eight drop out of schools more than ever before. About 40 percent were dropping out because "they could not continue classes due to poverty-related reasons."
Another major reason to question the "Ethiopia rising" narrative is the role of democracy and good governance in the process. Despite being endorsed as a democratically elected government by Barack Obama during his recent visit to the country, the Ethiopian government has been criticized for being increasingly autocratic and designing a systems that reward party members and affiliates to the exclusion of dissidents.
These concerns are also shared by citizens. A poll published in 2008 by Gallup reveals, fewer than 3 in 10 Ethiopians express trust in the national government, and the judiciary fares as poorly, eliciting confidence from about one-quarter of respondents. But participatory politics prompt the lowest levels of trust, as only 13 percent of Ethiopians have confidence in the honesty of elections. There is no much evidence to suggest citizen's confidence and trust in their government and institutions have improved since.
In conclusion, the fast economic growth that has been witnessed in Ethiopia so far is a good reason to be hopeful. However, it is too early to call it a miracle. There is a lot of homework to be done if this growth is to be sustained and more importantly translated into development. Improving the bureaucratic environment to make doing business easier should be a top priority, so should introducing a transparent and accountable business environment to control tax evasion and corruption. The government should also provide more space for the private sector to take the lead in the industrialization process.
Finally and most importantly, building national consensus to move forward as a nation is a must. As the former mayor-elect of Addis Ababa and now a rebel leader Professor Birhanu Nega once said "if you can't get your politics right, you can't get your economy right. A country may obtain short-term goals but without inclusive, broad-based Political structure, growth isn't sustainable".